Nokkrar heimildir um hversu ótraustvekjandi neysluvísitalan er

Úr handbók ILO um útreikning á vísitölum:

"2. 17 Creditors receiving interest payments do not consist only of households, of course. In any case, the purpose of index-linking interest is not to maintain the standard of living of the creditors but rather to maintain their real wealth by compensating thcm for the real holding, or capital. losses on their loans incurred as a result of general inflation. A CPI may not be the ideal index for this purpose hut may be used by default in the absence of any other convenient index a point discussed further below."

"2.36 Despite the obvious limitations of a CPI as a measure of general inflation, it is commonly used by governments and central banks to set inflation targets. Similarly, it is interpreted by the press and the public as the ultimate measure of inflation. Although governments and central banks are obviously well aware of the fact that the CPI is not a measure of general inflation, a number of factors help to explain the popularity of the CPI. and these are discussed below."

"Most countries have deliberately adopted a policy of not revising the index once it has been published. This makes it more attractive for many purposes, especially those with financial consequences such as indexation. The lack of revisions may perhaps create a somewhat spurious impression of certainty, but it also seems to enhance the credibility and acceptability of the index."

Sjá: http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/download/cpi/ch2.pdf

Með öðrum orðum: verið er að blekkja almenning til að trúa á neysluvísitöluna í blindni sem sanna og óvefengjanlega mælingu á verðbóglu!

"1.32 In practice. however, statistical offices do not calculate Laspeyres or Paasche indices but instead usually calculate Lowe indices as defined in equation (1. 1). The question then arises of how the Lowe index relates to the Laspeyres and Paasche indices. It is shown in the text of Chapter 15, and also in Appendix 15.2, that if there are persistent long-term trends in relative prices and if the substitution effect is operative, the Lowe index will tend to exceed the Laspeyres. and therefore also the Fisher and the Paasche indices. Assuming that period b precedes period 0, the ranking under these conditions will be:
Lowe >= Laspeyres >= Fisher >= Paasche
Moreover, the amount by which the Lowe exceeds the other three indices will tend to increase, the further back in time period h is in relation to period 0."

"1.114 Chapter 19 presents some numerical examples using an artificial data set. The purpose is not to illustrate the methods of calculation as such, but rather to demonstrate how different index number formulae can yield very different numerical results. Hypothetical but economically plausible prices, quantities and expenditures are given for six commodities over five periods of time. In general, differences between the different formulae tend to increase vith the variance of the price relatives. They also depend on the extent to which the prices follow smooth trends or fluctuate."

"1.115 The numerical results are striking. For example, the Laspeyres index over the five periods registers an increase of 44 per cent while the Paasche falls by 20 per cent. The two commonly used superlative indices. Tornqvist and Fisher, register increases of 25 per cent and 19 per cent respectively, an index number spread of only 6 points compared with the 64-point gap between the Laspeyres and Paasche. when the indices are chained, the chain Laspeyres and Paasche indices register increases of 33 per cent and 12 per cent respectively, reducing the gap between the two indices from 64 to 21 points. The chained Törnqvist and Fisher indices register increases of 22.26 per cent and 22.24 per cent respectively, being virtually identical numerically. These results show that the choice of index formula and method does matter."

Sjá: http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/download/cpi/ch1.pdf  

Ég vil taka fram að ég tel Hagstofuna vinna sínar mælingar heiðarlega eftir bestu getu og samvisku og í samræmi við alþjóðlega staðla og fræði. Ekkert út á það að setja. Ég er að benda á að útreikningur neysluvísitölu er undir venjulegum kringumstæðum erfiður og niðurstöður ávalt í besta falli góð nálgun á raunverulega verðbólgu. Í versta falli er niðurstaðan slæm nálgun á raunverulega verðbólgu og í því tilfelli er notkun hennar óforsvaranleg. Miðið við þá hagsmuni sem undir liggja hér á landi er ljóst að mun meira aðhald og eftirlit þarf með útreikningi vísitölunnar og eðlilegt er að skekkjumörk séu birt og leiðréttingar gerðar aftur í tímann þegar frávik koma fram.

Ég vil einnig benda á að (mis)notkun neysluvísitölu í verðtryggingum er verðbólguhvetjandi og því árást á hag fyrirtækja og heimila í landinu og árás á krónuna sem gjaldmiðil.

Sjá einnig færslu: http://thorsteinnhelgi.blog.is/blog/thorsteinnhelgi/entry/880239/

og: http://thorsteinnhelgi.blog.is/blog/thorsteinnhelgi/entry/768874/

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